The Positive Seasonality of July Could Be Noteworthy for Crypto Traders
- 王林Original
- 2024-07-02 07:45:20934browse
This is because Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically outperformed during the month. Analysts at QCP Capital say that Bitcoin's median return in July was 9.6%.
Cryptocurrency markets are showing signs of recovery, with Bitcoin reaching highs of $63,000. While the trend is positive, it remains to be seen if this momentum will continue. However, analysts are highlighting the positive seasonality of July, which could be significant for crypto traders.
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically outperformed during the month of July. In a report published on Monday, analysts at QCP Capital noted that BTC has a median return of 9.6% in July. They also observed that the month tends to bring a strong bounce, especially after a negative June, which saw a -9.85% return.
According to the analysts, several signs are pointing to a bullish July, including the positioning of Bitcoin options, which showed a preference for an upside move by the end of June.
Coinbase analysts, David Duong and David Han, also noted the same historical seasonal trend in the Coinbase weekly report. They stated that favorable seasonality and increased liquidity in July could support the market.
The analysts noted that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have tended to outperform others during July, particularly after a sell-off in June. Hence, the positive seasonality could hold true in July.
Coinbase analysts also highlighted that the current market setup appears supportive, with a lot of longs being cleared out following the Mt. Gox announcement. Additionally, liquidity may increase after average daily volumes for BTC and ETH on global exchanges fell 16.7% between May and June, moving from $90 billion to $75 billion.
While the outlook is positive, it's worth noting that Bitcoin liquidity could be impacted by payments to Mt. Gox creditors in BTC and Bitcoin Cash (BCH). JPMorgan analysts anticipate that these creditors may sell a portion of their Bitcoin receivables, initially putting pressure on the market, though a potential rebound could start in August.
The leading cryptocurrency began July with a rally from the $60,000 zone to reach $63,500 on Monday, following a brief dip to the $59,000 area last week. The rally came as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows showed a recovery, reaching $73 million in net inflows on Friday, marking the highest daily inflow in two weeks.
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