SOL rises another 9 times? GSR Markets: Solana expected to outperform Bitcoin after launching spot ETF

This site (120Btc.coM)

After asset management giant VanEck applied for Solana ETF to the US SEC yesterday (27th), cryptocurrency market maker GSR Markets released a report on the same day, bluntly stating that Solana has become the next number. High potential for asset spot ETFs. The agency said:

With other companies owning or about to launch ETFs, not only is it likely just a matter of time before Solana gets a spot ETF as well, but the impact on SOL could be the biggest yet.

Possibility analysis of Solana ETF

GSR Markets believes that the two key factors that determine the next digital asset spot ETF are "degree of decentralization" and "potential demand", so the digital assets were analyzed based on these two factors. analyze. When analyzing the degree of decentralization, the three indicators proposed by the agency are as follows:

• Nakamoto Coefficient: measures the minimum number of independent entities that may collude to attack the network. The larger the number, the higher the degree of decentralization.
• Staking Requirements: A measure of how easy it is for anyone to participate in the network as a node operator or validator, including minimum staking and hardware requirements. Lower staking and hardware requirements represent greater decentralization.
• CCData Governance Rating: Contains various governance measures around participation, transparency and decentralization.

According to GSR Markets scores (including a certain degree of subjectivity), the four blockchains with the highest decentralization scores are Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche and Aptos.

Decentralization Score

GSR Markets Metrics for Assessing Potential Demand for Spot ETFs:

1. Market Indicators:

   • High Market Cap
   • High Trading Volume
   • Strong Token performance

2. Existing product AUM:

   • The higher the global AUM of the token’s existing investment products, the higher the potential demand for spot ETF products

3. Activity indicators:

   • Strong and active
   • Widely used

GSR Markets Rating:

Blockchains with above average demand score:

• Ethereum
• Solana
• NEAR

  

  Potential demand score

Finally add these two scores to get the final ETF likelihood score. GSR Markets wrote in the report: The next highest after Ethereum is Solana, which also significantly surpasses the following digital assets and is the only one besides Ethereum to score positive in both decentralization and demand. valuable assets.

All in all

The results clearly show that if more digital asset spot ETFs are allowed in the US, Solana is next.

ETF Underlying Asset Likelihood Score

Potential Impact of Solana Spot ETF on SOL Price

Assessment

GSR Markets evaluates the potential impact of Solana Spot ETF on SOL price. They referenced the impact of the Bitcoin spot ETF on Bitcoin, noting that the price of Bitcoin has pushed up from $27,000 in October to about $63,000 now, an increase of 2.3 times, so they used this 2.3 times as a benchmark.

GSR Markets considered the following three scenarios to estimate the proportion of Solana spot ETF inflows relative to Bitcoin:

1. Bear market scenario: Solana’s global investment product assets under management (AUM) are only 2 of Bitcoin’s %.
2. Base Scenario: Evaluate Solana’s performance using actual inflows from 2021 to 2023. Cumulative inflows into Solana investment products relative to Bitcoin over the three-year period were 5%.
3. Optimistic Scenario (BlueSky): Over the past two years, Solana’s relative inflows have improved significantly, accounting for 31% and 9% of Bitcoin inflows in 2022 and 2023 respectively. GSR Markets puts the annual average over these three years 14% relative inflows as optimistic scenario.

Forecast

After comprehensive assessment, GSR Markets pointed out:

• Under the bear market scenario, SOL may grow 1.4 times
• Under the basic scenario, it will grow 3.4 times
• Under the optimistic scenario, SOL will grow 8.9 times . Since SOL price is currently at $145, this suggests that GSR Markets believes SOL could rise to $1,290.

Others

GSR Markets also stated that the potential impact on SOL may be higher than these estimates, because unlike BTC, SOL is active in staking and decentralized applications, and considering the current SOL price against Solana spot ETF expectations are lower, suggesting SOL's potential upside could be greater.

The above is the detailed content of SOL rises another 9 times? GSR Markets: Solana expected to outperform Bitcoin after launching spot ETF. For more information, please follow other related articles on the PHP Chinese website!