On-chain observation: How do long-term and short-term holders affect BTC prices?

Compiled by Akechi

Recently, the price of Bitcoin is trying hard to return to its historical peak. In this article, we will examine the contribution of both long-term and short-term holder groups to the supply and demand side of the market during this period. Complementing this research, we will also use new segmentation indicators to assess the impact of the consumption and investment behavior of different sub-groups of long-term investors on the market.

Summary

• Since Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $73,000 in March, the upward momentum has stalled and the market has been trading sideways accordingly. According to our analysis, market demand momentum has turned positive to negative since early May.
• This article will analyze the cost basis of short-term investors and use it as a benchmark to analyze how capital flows into the market at the current stage.
• To analyze what role the supply side plays in the market, this article examines the investment activities of long-term holders and finds that the unrealized profits held by this group are statistically well below previous historical peaks.
• Looking at the behavior of long-term holders selling their Bitcoin assets, it can be seen that although the Bitcoin assets sold by this part of investors only account for 4%-8% of the total sales volume in the market, they sell these Bitcoins The profits earned by cryptocurrencies usually account for 30%-40% of the accumulated profits during the bull market. This discovery highlights the fact that market profits are concentrated in those Bitcoins that have been held for a long time. These profits are gradually realized in the bull market, and their huge profits fully live up to these "diamond hands" (referring to the violent volatility in the market). Investors who remain steadfast in holding high-risk assets like Bitcoin despite market volatility are waiting patiently.

Market Demand Side Tracking

In the previous analysis article (Sales are drying up! The market is forming a new bottom), we have proposed a method to track the capital flowing into or out of the market, and determine whether the capital is flowing into or out of the market. The direction of flow in the market and inferring its size. Here, we will continue to use this method to use the time of holding Bitcoin assets as a scale to segment the short-term holder group and continue to deepen our analysis:

• When the cost basis of the short-term holder group rises, Indicating that new buyers are purchasing the Bitcoin asset at higher prices. At this point, capital is in a state of net inflow into the market (and vice versa).
• We can use the MVRV ratio to approximate the unrealized profits held by each group when the spot price deviates upward (or downward) from the current cost basis.
• We can use MVRV to measure the incentive for investors to take profits (when MVRV reaches high levels), or to spot signs of seller exhaustion (when MVRV falls to low levels).

First, we compare the spot price to the cost basis of two groups of short-term investors:

• Holders who have held Bitcoin assets for between 1 week and 1 month.
• Holders who hold Bitcoin assets between 1 month and 3 months.

Thus, we can determine how capital flows and changes from a macro perspective when the market is in the early stages of a bull market and a bear market respectively. The chart below shows how these two price models could support the overall market during a bull run in 2023-24.

Since mid-June, the spot price of Bitcoin has fallen below the cost basis ($68,500) of holders with a holding period of 1 week to 1 month, and has even reached a level of 1 month to 3 months. of the holder's cost basis ($66,400). Based on historical experience, if this situation continues, it will cause investor confidence to be hit and may lead to a deeper price correction. And there is no doubt that the market will take longer to recover from such a deep correction.

图一：不同持币时长的短期持有者细分群体的已实现价格

We can also describe current market momentum by comparing the respective cost bases of these different short-term investor segments. The details are shown in the figure below:

• Capital inflow: At this time, the cost basis of short-term holders who hold the currency for 1 week to 1 month is higher than the cost basis of investors who hold the currency for 1 month to 3 months. . At this time, the positive momentum of the market is very obvious, and strong market trends are constantly attracting new capital to enter the market.
• Capital outflow: At this time, the market has the exact opposite situation - that is, the cost basis of the former falls below the cost basis of the latter. This market structure indicates that the momentum on the demand side is weakening and the market is starting to experience net outflows of capital.

In the previous bull market, this negative capital flow structure appeared five times in total. In addition to this, we can see that this structure has been forming since May and continues until early June.

图二：短期持有者的资金流情况

市场供给侧分析

为了全面了解当前市场，我们需要引入长期持有者行为相关的指标来进行进一步分析。长期持有者群体是牛市期间市场供应的主要提供者，因为他们会在市场中出售所持的比特币以寻求获利了结。从某种意义上来说，市场周期顶部的形成，可以部分归因于长期持有者在不断地加大他们抛售比特币的力度，这种规模的抛售将最终耗尽在牛市期间涌入市场的新需求。

在下图中，我们将比较比特币现货价格与长期持有者群体的平均成本基础（即长期持有者群体的实现价格）的关键倍率这两个重要指标。

• 1.0 倍长期持有者群体实现价格（图中绿线）：就我们的历史经验而言，这一情形的出现与熊市周期的底部形成阶段以及市场复苏阶段相一致。
• 1.5 倍长期持有者群体实现价格（图中橘线）：这一价格位置往往被看作市场复苏阶段和牛市期间的长周期市场均衡阶段的分水岭。在此期间，尽管比特币价格会持续上涨，但上涨率则非常缓慢。平均而言，在此阶段，长期持有者所持有的未实现利润约为 50%。
• 3.5 倍长期持有者群体实现价格（图中红线）：该价格是牛市的均衡阶段与欣快阶段的分界线。一旦进入了这个阶段，比特币价格通常会快速上涨。而且，在此阶段中，长期持有者所持有的未实现利润约为 250% 甚至更高，在如此高的利润刺激下，长期持有者们往往会加速抛售他们所持有的比特币资产。

如果我们将上述框架用于分析当前周期，可以发现，从宏观角度来看，当前的牛市走势与 2017 年的周期非常相似。而两者间尤为相似的一点是，当比特币价格在当前的历史峰值下方进行盘整时，市场表现与 3.5 倍长期持有者群体实现价格点（图中红线所示）这一指标所描述的这种处于均衡和欣快阶段的分水岭的情形完全一致。

图三：长期持有者的平均成本基础倍率

长期持有者群体所持有的未实现利润这一指标可以被视作一个心理标杆，用以衡量他们是否有足够的意愿，去出售他们所持有的比特币资产以寻求获利了结。我们可以使用 LTH-NUPL（长期持有者净未实现利润 / 损失）这一指标，来直观地展现长期持有者进行投资决策时的心理动机。

在撰写本文时，LTH-NUPL 为 0.66，这一数值表示当前市场大概处于「预欣快」阶段（图中绿线所示）。及至目前，比特币市场已处于这一阶段达 96 天之久，而在 2016-17 年周期中，市场也曾如此长期地处于这一阶段中。

图四：长期持有者的 NUPL 指标（LTH-NUPL）

通过长期持有者支出二元指标，我们可以确定长期持有者会在哪一个时间段大规模抛售他们手中持有的比特币资产。毫无疑问地，在这样的集中抛售期里，长期持有者所持有的资产总余额会出现大幅度的下降。

我们由此得以确定长期持有者抛售资产的不同阶段：

• 疲软抛售期，来自长期持有者的比特币供应在过去 15 天内至少有 3 天处于下降状态。
• 正常抛售期，来自长期持有者的比特币供应在过去 15 天内至少有 8 天处于下降状态。
• 强力抛售期，来自长期持有者的比特币供应在过去 15 天内至少有 12 天处于下降状态。

图五：长期持有者支出二元指标（近 15 日）

我们的下一张图表旨在结合上述的两个模型，来综合评估并可视化长期投资者的情绪和投资行为。在接下来的推导中，我们将综合分析哪些动机会令他们决定兑现利润（或损失）并选择出局，以及他们实际上是如何进行操作的。

我们考虑导致长期投资者选择清算他们的资产并出局的四种不同动机：

• 投降：此时比特币的现货价格低于长期持有者的成本基础。因此，在该阶段中，任何大笔的比特币资产出售都可以归因于投资者的信心崩溃和恐慌性抛售。
• 过渡：此时现货价格略高于长期持有者的成本基础，长期持有者偶尔会出售少量的比特币资产。这种零星的出售一般被认为是典型的日常交易。
• 平衡：当市场自长期熊市中恢复之后，它将在少量新需求流入、流动性减弱，以及上一周期的水下持有者逐步获利了结，这三方博弈之间取得新的平衡。在这一阶段，来自长期持有者的大额资产抛售通常与价格的突然反弹或回调相关。
• 欣快：作为这一阶段的标志，LTH-MVRV 指标将突破 3.5 的阈值，并且与市场达到前一个周期的历史峰值时该指标的水平趋向一致。在这一阶段，长期持有者群体平均持有 250% 以上的未实现利润，从而一举推动市场进入欣快的上涨阶段，这促使这些长期持有者加速抛售他们持有的大笔比特币资产，以寻求获利了结。

通过这种方法，我们可以看到长期持有者群体在 2023 年第四季度和 2024 年第一季度，都出现了较大规模的资产抛售行为，这推动市场在此期间不断走高，并在其后重新进入新的平衡状态。

图六：长期持有者的抛售行为及其所带来的损益

谁在影响卖方压力？

上文分析了在来自长期持有者总供应量下降的时期中，这部分投资者的抛售行为背后的不同逻辑。此外，我们还可以分门别类地看看持币时间各不相同的细分群体中，究竟是谁对市场中卖方压力的变化起到了举足轻重的影响。

图七：市场比特币供应中的币龄分层

为了分门别类地评估在长期持有者中的每一个细分群体究竟在多大程度上影响了市场中的比特币支出，我们将重点关注此时间段：市场中的比特币支出量较年平均值高出至少一个标准差。

虽然每个投资者群体都会出现偶发的爆发性支出，但在牛市的狂热阶段，高支出日出现的频率会急剧增加。这说明了在比特币价格快速上涨的时期中，长期持有者会不约而同地选择获利出局。

图八：长期持有者群体的支出（Z- 评分）

考虑到在当前时间段中，每日链上交易量中仅有 4%-8% 与长期持有者群体相关，因此我们将利用另一个核心链上指标（已实现利润 / 损失）来分析他们在市场供应侧的相对权重。

图九：市场支出的比特币的币龄分层（SVAB）（30 日均线）

下图显示了在牛市期间，长期持有者的累计已实现利润量。我们发现，来自长期持有者的利润通常占总锁定利润的 20% 到 40%。

更进一步说，尽管来自长期持有者的比特币资产交易量仅占每日交易总量的 4% 到 8%，但其所产生的利润却最高能占到投资者获利的 40%。

图十：牛市中的已实现利润

总结

自 3 月初以来，市场的价格走势以横盘整理为主。因此，我们分别利用了长期和短期持有者的成本基础来评估市场当前的供需程度。

根据短期投资者细分群体成本基础的变化，我们构建了一个工具集来估算资本流入比特币网络的趋势。结果证实，在 3 月币价冲上历史新高之后，接踵而来的是一段资本的净流出期（该趋势指标为负值）。

之后，我们将长期持有者群体按照持币时间进行进一步的细分，并分门别类地讨论各个细分之后的投资者群体。这一分析的结论表明，在牛市的欣快阶段，高支出日出现的频率急剧增加。有趣的是，尽管来自长期持有者的交易量仅占每日交易总量的 4% 到 8%，然而，该群体的获利却占投资者总利润的 40%。

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