The Prize for Owning Web3 Distribution Is Enormous. Here\'s Why It Won\'t Go to Big Tech

Ten years from now, decentralized organizations will be the new leading class, with the FAANGs of the world as specialized service providers.

The blockchain industry has been grappling with a self-defining question for over a decade: how do we achieve mainstream adoption? The search for the "killer app" or company that swiftly integrates the masses into cryptographic infrastructure has proven to be a formidable undertaking. However, unlocking product-market fit in this realm signifies more than a victory for the consumer; it will herald a profound shift in the architecture and governance of the internet for our lifetime. So, who will emerge as the powerhouse distributor of Web3, controlling the wallets and app store of the future?

The prize for owning Web3 distribution is vast but increasingly slipping away from the grasp of the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). Despite their immense resources and sway, these giants have, to date, been most successful in a supporting role, passively aiding the transition to a decentralized future by, say, facilitating access to compute.

Activating Web3 is a multi-faceted endeavor, one not well-suited for companies that capitalize on data and advertising to post big profits. The “world’s most innovative companies” are too deeply entrenched in the mire of legacy business models, partners, and products, further slowed by their own culture shock and shareholder short termism.

It's clear that Big Tech doesn’t take crypto seriously. They’ve never been open about how their open-source initiatives might be redirected to crypto, nor have they acquired a meaningful piece of a base layer by buying a token, despite the governance rights that could come with it to influence the roadmap. One might ask what we’ve come to expect from these legacy platform companies who unofficially govern the global web, and the true value they provide to users versus themselves.

Despite having nearly ubiquitous distribution and seemingly unlimited opportunity to hire emerging talent in blockchain, the story has always been that it is not a big enough addressable market opportunity today. After sunsetting Libra due to regulatory backlash, Facebook’s metaverse unit has a net loss of $40 billion over the past three years and still doesn't have chips on the table in crypto. Instead of leaning into being a distributor for Web3 users, they’re trying to innovate the product suite in order to continue generating more than 95% of revenue through ad sales, in part because of a pervasive belief from regulators that consumers can’t be trusted with the responsibility of their finances or their own data.

We are becoming accustomed to having our email screened to help “tune the AI model,” and, subconsciously, most consumers have agreed to give up privacy in exchange for modern conveniences. This further entrenches the reach and power of the FAANGs but doesn’t bring us any closer to implementing truly modern technology like blockchain that would materially improve the average person’s life.

Giving away more and more of ourselves and our businesses’ IP to these institutions will become a requirement as the arms race for AI reinforces data-focused differentiation. This might be the moment that tilts the power structure into full greed mode, breaking entirely.

By design, the next era of the web will not be controlled by a handful of monoliths who refuse to accept a powerful but light-touch role to service end-users without overreaching. The new internet requires fresh leadership that is willing to plot a very long term course: a new generation of decentralized projects and startups built on principles of user control and community governance, who will help the industry adapt to the ethos of Web3.

Today’s builders are relentless in their pursuit of regaining power to defy exploitative Web 2.0 practices, operating systems and app store constraints, so that 10 years from now, decentralized organizations are the new more benevolent leading class and the FAANGs become service providers.

The existential threat to blockchain is that without a well organized and a strategic global marketing strategy, we will build it and no one will come. However, if we enlist a distribution partner who brings enough scale to make it lucrative to build Web3 apps, developers will start testing fun things that may unlock a big enough prize to justify the risks of building for an app store that doesn’t yet exist. Developing one “killer app” matters less than being the distributor who unlocks the opportunity for developers to acquire lots of potential users.

One well-poised incumbent is Telegram.

Building a base layer blockchain and associated community is a formidable task and so far very few have been successful in tapping into true consumer activity outside of cryptonatives. Every kingmaker seems to align with a new blockchain: Coinbase created BASE, FTX knighted Solana, Facebook attempted Libra, Amazon envisioned its own chain for NFTs, and so on. The scalability of new-age base layers is impressive, but it won’t be enough to win on technology alone. Distribution and activity are the scaling solution; infrastructure is becoming easier to build and could trend toward commoditizing.

The revolving door will jam when developers start sniffing out low customer acquisition cost and a huge prize in global adoption: the Telegram mini-app opportunity. Telegram

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