Take a moment to think about how far Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has come. What was once worth just a few pennies has flourished over the past decade and a half and is now worth over $60,000.
The cyclical nature of Bitcoin
While the price of Bitcoin seems unpredictable, it has followed an eerily similar pattern since its inception in 2009 for approximately four years A cycle. Known as the cycle, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles so far and is currently in the fourthcycle. It's probably no coincidence that the cycle is four years, as that's how often Bitcoinhalvings happen. Whenever 210,000 blocks are added to its blockchain (which happens approximately every four years), Bitcoin's inflation rate will halve. This change essentially creates a supply shock, where even if demand remains the same, its price must increase to compensate for the reduction in supply
.Usually, the four-year cycle has always been like this. It begins with a bear market phase, such as the one observed in 2022, which is characterized by a sharp decline from the previous high . Year two typically marks the start of the recovery phase, similar to the uptrend we see in 2023. The third year, including the halving, is also the year we are in since Bitcoin had its halving in April , which typically triggers significant price increases as expectations of supply reductions become apparent Rising . Finally, in year four, if the cycle holds true, Bitcoin tends to experience its most significant gains
.Predictions Bitcoin price in 2025
While there are no guarantees , Bitcoin currently appears to be following its historical four-year pattern . Assuming the pattern will continue, we can make an educated guess about its price in 2025
based on what happened in past cycles.Let’s start with 2024, the year Bitcoin experienced its most recent halving in April . As explained earlier, the halving has a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin. In 2012, the year of Bitcoin’s first halving, it rose 119%. Four years later in 2016, it had a respectable gain of 93%. In 2020, it surged 174%. This means that in the years the halving occurred , Bitcoin was up on average by about 125% . Let’s start here and move on to 2025. If Bitcoin rises 125%, then one can reasonably expect to reach $99,000 in Bitcoin by the end of the year, measured from its price at the beginning of 2024. Given that Bitcoin is already up about 60% this year, it only needs to rise another 60% to maintain historical norms. This may sound significant, but remember, this is Bitcoin. History shows it can cover this magnitude in months.
Assuming 2024 unfolds this way, we might see close to $100,000 in Bitcoin to start 2025. This alone is impressive and makes today's invest a valuable opportunity. However, in past cycles, the full impact of halvings peaked a year after the halving event . In 2013 , one year after Bitcoin’s first halving, it grew by a staggering 840%. After another halving in 2016, it rose by 331% in 2017. Then in 2020, it rose 174%. Add all this to the fact that, on average, Bitcoin is up a staggering 400% in these post-halving years . So,
400%of growth would push the price of Bitcoin to close to $500,000 by the end of next year, if measured from the starting price of a projected $99,000 in early 2025. Managing expectations deserves recognition that past performance
is no guaranteeof future results . However, until the contrary is proven, the persistence of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is at least convincing. What’s more, history shows that the full impact of the halving will not be fully felt until at least a year after the halving .
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