Bitcoin (BTC) Price Tends to Rise in July After June Declines, Data Shows

Each single time the price of bitcoin has seen itself decline in June, the gigantic cryptocurrency by market cap would recover in the following month—typically by double digits.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped about 9% this June, from around $67,700 at the start of the **month** to as low as $58,400 before settling around roughly $61,700, TradingView data shows. However, in each of the past five years, BTC has had a positive return in the month following a June price decline, sometimes as high as 24%. This year, BTC dropped for three out of the past four weeks. Here’s a closer look at what may have contributed to BTC’s price decline this June and what traders are saying about the upcoming month.

Lack of New Capital, German Gov't, Mt. Gox

The price decline of BTC comes as traders are contending with several market forces, including the lack of new capital in the crypto ecosystem and selling pressure bolstered by the German government and Mt. Gox bankruptcy disbursements. “The crypto market has entered an exhaustion phase,” wrote DecentralParkCapital portfolio manager Kelly Ye in a newsletter published Monday. “The lack of fresh capital into crypto is reflected in the slowdown in stablecoin supply.” The total market cap of all fiat-backed stablecoins has remained at $149 billion since **May**, after growing each **month** from $122 billion on Jan. 1, 2024, CoinMarketCap data shows. Not only has the lack of new capital coming into crypto played a role in BTC’s negative price movement, but the German government has also sent almost $220 million worth of BTC to various exchanges in the past seven days, a sign that the German authorities are selling, according to blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence.

Additionally, Mt. Gox, the Bitcoin exchange that filed for bankruptcy in 2014, will begin $9 billion worth of BTC repayments in **July** to its **creditors**, sparking fear that the long-awaited disbursements may add selling pressures in the **market**. However, BTC’s decline on **Monday** from $63,000 to around $58,400 may not have been triggered by the upcoming Mt. Gox disbursements, despite the large amount of Bitcoin being sold by the German government, some traders say. “Yesterday wasn’t just about the Mt. Gox overhang–the news of the distributions was not a surprise, and while likely sell pressure could act as a BTC lid in the coming months, it’s unlikely to actually trigger a drop such as what we saw,” tweeted crypto-macro analyst Noelle Acheson.

Diamond-Handed Mt. Gox Creditors, ETH Rotation

“We are not going to see a dump of $9bns since not all claimants will sell, and the distributions are unlikely to be all at once (there will be some sell pressure, but it will be distributed and most likely less than many expect),” Acheson added. In a similar vein, the head of research at Galaxy, Alex Thorn, argues that individual Mt. Gox creditors are likely to “be more diamond-handed than the market expects.” “Diamond hands” refer to the qualities of people who have the will to hold rather than sell their cryptocurrencies in times of volatility, as opposed to “paper hands,” who tend to sell their cryptocurrencies quickly. According to Thorn, Mt. Gox creditors are tech-savvy, long-term Bitcoiners, who have also “resisted years of compelling and aggressive offers from claims funds, suggesting they want their coins back rather than a USD-denominated payout.” “Less coins will be distributed than ppl think and that will cause less #Bitcoin sell pressure than market expects,” Thorn noted.

The price of BTC sliding during the end of June coincides with the expected rollout of several spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at the beginning of July. “As a result, we could also be seeing some rotation into ETH in expectation of outperformance in the run-up to launch,” Acheson said. Bitcoin’s recent price movement is about “macro jitters, and about possible ETH outperformance in coming weeks.”

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