Bitcoin rebounds after hitting $64,000! U.S. retail sales data in May was lower than expected, reinforcing Fed's interest rate cut

After the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest CPI data on June 12, it showed that inflation is continuing to cool. The U.S. Department of Commerce released May retail sales data last night (18th), known as the "American horror data": U.S. retail sales in May increased by 0.1% month-on-month, lower than market expectations of 0.3%, and the previous value increased from 0% was revised down to -0.2%; May's core retail sales, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, reported a monthly growth rate of 0.4%, slightly higher than market expectations of 0.3%. The previous value was revised down to -0.5% , the largest decline in a year.

Experts: U.S. consumption is slowing

This is higher than expected data and a sharply revised previous value. Many experts said that this highlights that American consumers are facing greater financial pressure. CapitalEconomicsPaul Ashworth, chief North American economist, said in a report: As service consumption growth has slowed in recent months and consumer confidence has plummeted again, perhaps households are not as reluctant to raise interest rates as we first thought. So sensitive. Another BloombergEconomists Estelle Ou and Eliza Winger also said in a report: Considering that service spending has been the main engine of consumption growth, this decline in a month that includes the Memorial Day holiday A sign that consumers are feeling the impact of tighter budgets.

The probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased to 61.7%

In view of this, although Fed officials earlier predicted through the interest rate dot plot that there will only be one interest rate cut this year, the retail sales data released last night once again boosted market confidence. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market has once again increased its bets on an interest rate cut in September. It is estimated that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by one yard in September has reached 61.7%, and it is believed that the Fed will carry out a second interest rate cut in December. .

The market’s bets on the Fed’s interest rate cut in September are 61.7%. Fed official: Now is still not the time to cut interest rates. However, after the May retail sales data was released, Fed official Collins still came out to pour cold water on the market, saying that now It is not yet time to cut interest rates. The Fed still needs to see more data on slowing inflation: Don’t be dazzled by the recent slowing inflation data. It is too early to conclude that inflation will continue to compress towards the 2% target. , we should not overreact to the recent upbeat news. Overall, the Fed has made significant progress in controlling inflation, but it is still not the time to cut interest rates. More evidence of slowing inflation is needed. BTC stabilizes after 64,000 pins Back to the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin briefly surged after the release of retail sales data at 20:30 last night, but soon continued to fall. It was close to four o'clock this morning (19) The lowest pin was 64,051 US dollars; however, it then started to rebound. The current price at the time of writing was 65,171 US dollars, and the decline in the past 24 hours narrowed to 0.89%.

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