Seven emerging trends in cryptocurrency

作者： Ignas

编译：善欧巴，金色财经

我感觉加密货币市场即将发生大事，非常看涨。虽然我不确定具体会发生什么，但市场正在经历显著变化。

利率开始下降、 ETH ETF 获批、 BTC ETF 资金流入增加、 Stripe 启动稳定币支付……

就像军队在决定性战役前布阵一样，主要的加密公司和传统金融机构正在为即将到来的牛市做准备。

更多关于这种「感觉」的内容见下文：

与此同时，加密货币内部机器并未停止运转。是的，价格在下跌……但市场总是在变化，新叙事和新趋势不断涌现，并随着其影响力的增强而影响市场。

就像 MakerDAO 在「 DeFi 」一词出现之前就已经上线一样，目前市场上也出现了一些新趋势，这些趋势还不够大，无法形成连贯的故事。

以下是 7 个可能对市场产生重大影响的新兴趋势。

1.重新包装

老币很无聊，赌徒想要新东西。

如果你可以改变品牌名称，创建一个新代币标记，并用新图表重新开始，那听起来更令人兴奋！

Fantom → Sonic

这正是 Fantom 通过 Sonic 升级所做的。

Sonic 是一个新的 L1 ，带有与以太坊的原生 L2 桥接。它将拥有新的 Sonic Foundation & Labs 以及全新的视觉标识。

更重要的是，新的 $ S 代币「确保了 $ FTM 到 $ S 的兼容性和迁移，比例为 1:1。」

这是一个聪明的举动，因为 Sonic 迁移比简单地称其为「 Fantom 2.0」产生更多的市场炒作。这使 Fantom 可以抛开其多链桥接问题，重新开始。

Connext → Everclear

类似地， Connext 正在重新命名为 Everclear 。

在加密货币中重新命名并不新鲜，但这里的新兴趋势是将重大升级重新包装为新产品。

这比另一个 v2 或 v3 升级向市场发出的信号更强。人们对仅仅是另一个「 v4 」升级并不感兴趣。

通过从 Connext 转变为 Everclear ，团队传达了这不仅仅是简单的重新命名，而是技术进步的重大进展。

Connext 从简单的桥接基础设施转变为第一个清算层。它就像一个内置于 Arbitrum Orbit rollup 上的链（通过 Gelato RaaS ）并使用 Hyperlane 与 Eigenlayer ISM 连接到其他链。

连接任何链，任何资产，为模块化加密货币未来铺平道路。

NE X T 代币在这一消息发布后上涨了约 38%（但未持久）。 Fantom 的 $ FTM 再次火爆，其在 X 上的认知度也有所提升。

我预计更多协议将重新命名以适应 2024 年的市场趋势和技术进步。

例如， IOTA 正在重新命名为真实资产的 L2 。

此外，合并可能会变得更加常见，例如 Fetch ai 、 Ocean protocol 和 SingularityNet 合并为一个 $ ASI 代币，成为一个新的加密超级 AI 项目。

关键在于关注新品牌项目和新标记（如果推出）的价格表现。虽然现在还言之过早，但 FTM 和 NEXT 以及 FET 、 AGIX 和 OCEAN 的初始价格表现是乐观的。如果市场开始再次上涨……

还有更多重新包装 / 重新命名即将到来吗？

2.支持加密的监管

监管一直是个大问题，尤其是在美国， SEC 瞄准了 Coinbase 、 Kraken 和 Uniswap 等主要参与者。尽管 Ripple 和 Grayscale 取得了一些胜利，并批准了比特币 ETF ，但监管环境仍然充满敌意，更多地关注合法项目而非彻头彻尾的骗局。

But things have changed: Trump’s vocal support of cryptocurrencies has forced Democrats to change their anti-crypto strategy. Biden accepts cryptocurrency donations. Now the SEC has dropped its lawsuit against Consensys, effectively acknowledging that ETH is a commodity.

Now, the short-term future of cryptocurrencies will depend on the election. I like Felix's (Hartmann Capital) analysis in the article below.

Here are the main points.

If Gensler is removed from office or his powers are limited by the courts and Congress, expect crypto assets to surge by more than 30%, followed by a sustained bull market. If he remains in power, a prolonged downturn is expected, with law firms benefiting and cryptocurrencies and taxpayers hurting, with only Bitcoin and memecoins relatively unaffected.

Regulatory clarity could lead to the biggest bull run ever, changing digital asset markets in several ways:

• Shift from narrative to product-market fit: Crypto projects will focus on creating value products, not just hype, leading to higher quality development.
• Clear Success Metrics: Valuations will rely more on actual product-market fit and earnings, less on speculation, and highlight fundamentally strong tokens.
• Easier financing environment: Stronger fundamentals will make it easier for digital assets to obtain financing and reduce the cyclical rise and fall of altcoins.
• Booming M&A market: Well-funded projects may acquire undercapitalized but valuable DeFi protocols, driving innovation and closer adoption, with some Tier 1 blockchains turning acquisitions into public goods to add to the network value.

3. BTC Arbitrage Trade: BTC ETF + BTC Short

Leverage always finds new ways into the system. Whether it’s Grayscale’s “widowmaker exchange” or CeFi (Celsius, Blockfi, etc.) unsecured loans.

Each cycle mechanism is different. But where is the leverage hidden now?

The obvious target is Ethena's risk-free neutral strategy. As long as the funding rate is positive, everything is fine, but what happens if/when the funding rate becomes negative and the USDe position needs to be closed?

Another target is the remortgage of LRT.

But another target is our beloved BTC ETF buyers.

The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen 19 consecutive days of inflows, with 5.2% of BTC in circulation being held by the ETF (although this record is now broken).

So, why isn’t BTC soaring?

Turns out, hedge funds are shorting Bitcoin via CME futures in record numbers.

The possible explanation is that hedge funds buy spot and short BTC, conducting a 15%-20% neutral strategy.

Same strategy as Ethena.

What happens when the funding rate becomes negative (because gamblers stop being bullish and close long positions)?

Will Ethena (led by retail investors) and spot BTC + shorting CME futures (led by institutions) cause a major crash when these positions need to be unwound?

worry. But perhaps there is a simpler answer: Institutions are arbitraging the positive price (currently 2.3%) between different BTC spot and BTC futures.

In any case, these new developments brought about by spot ETFs require close attention, because so-called "risk-free" arbitrage often ends up being "more risky" than initially thought.

4. Point Farm Gamification

Our points addiction is getting worse, but we don’t know how to stop.

Protocols require points to attract an initial user base. They help boost adoption statistics and raise capital at higher valuations.

We are tired of points but don't have a better replacement yet.

Instead, I've noticed a trend towards points gamification, adding extra elements to make the boring points farming strategy more interesting.

Sanctum introduces Wonderland, where you collect pets and gain experience points (EXP) to upgrade them. As a community, you need to come together to get things done.

This isn't too different from other points programs in that your airdrops are heavily dependent on deposited SOL, but... the community loves it!

# Sanctum's month-long first season also lifted sentiments. I'd like to see 0 to 1 innovation in points farming, but even with points fatigue, our addiction to them is too strong.

Instead, I expect there will be more attempts at gamification to bring some fun to the farm.

5. The Counter-Trend of Low Float, High FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) Issuances

Everyone hates low float, high FDV offerings. Except for the VC and team, who can sell for a higher price. Oh, and there are airdrop hunters, who get more tokens in airdrops.

But what about retail investors? No. 26 of the 31 coins recently listed on Binance are in the red.

Binance used to be the place to buy hot new coins, but not anymore. Centralized exchange listings are sell news and cash out events.

Unsurprisingly, Binance recently announced a token listing at a modest valuation, prioritizing community rewards over internal allocations.

We have yet to see words translate into action, but this would be a step in the right direction.

VCs are taking their fair share of responsibility. Large VC investments that were once viewed as a positive sign are now viewed by the crypto community as extracting value. The concern is that VCs aim to profit by selling their large allocations, which they obtain at minimal cost.

The project team must also take action to avoid a forever falling price chart.

The agreement parties also have more experiments. For example, Ekubo on Starknet allocates 1/3 of the tokens to users, 1/3 to the team, and 1/3 to be sold by the DAO within two months. Not everyone liked the two-month sell-off, but it was kind of like a community token sale, similar to ICOs of the past.

Similarly, Nostra on Starknet launched NSTR at 100% FDV, with 25% allocated via airdrop and 12% sold during the liquidity launch pool event. They called it the fairest launch in DeFi, but it raised concerns leading to low-circulation tokens (teams, VCs cashing out early and exiting). Nostra said team and VC tokens will be tokenized on-chain.

If you see them selling, you'd better sell too.

We also have 100% airdrop experiments such as Friendtech and Bitcoin Runes which are mostly minted by the community for free (although Runes also allow for pre-mining).

what's the result? uncertain. But there are areas of hope.

Watch New Token Issuance Models – A new type of successful issuance could become the new dollar trend in this bull market. If you find one, please share it in the comments.

6. McKinsey Enters DeFi

DeFi allows for self-sovereignty, enabling you to own and use your assets regardless of national borders.

But DeFi has become very complicated! There are many strategies available, the complexity of which increases with every % we want to squeeze out.

Additionally, governing these increasingly complex protocols requires specific knowledge.

Therefore, consulting companies similar to traditional finance have emerged to help protocols deal with security, governance and optimization issues. The most famous example is Gauntlet , whose clients pay millions every year.

More importantly, DeFi protocols are adapting to allow DeFi’s McKinsey to manage user assets or/and external risk management.

Morpho Blue permissionless lending allows the McKinsey of DeFi to create markets with any asset and risk parameters without relying on governance.

7. Getting started with DeFi similar to Web2

I really like this one.

While Friend tech may have issues, it has successfully popularized Privy to create and manage wallets using Web2 accounts.

During the NFT craze, I helped a friend purchase an NFT on OpenSea. Teaching how to use Metamask is a real pain.

But now, you can use Privy to create a wallet on Opensea with email and 2FA code. Seriously, go give it a try. It took me a minute.

Fantasy Top is leveraging Privy and other user-facing applications.

This trend extends beyond Privy.

Infinex, developed by Synthetix, allows the creation of wallets using keys, so you only need to use a password manager for your wallet.

Coinbase has launched a smart wallet that can pay gas fees on behalf of users, supports batch transactions, and allows wallet creation using Web2 tools.

Now, complex user onboarding is no longer an excuse for lack of cryptocurrency adoption. We just need unique consumer applications.

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