Dovey Wan’s new article: Tokens are a financialized belief system, and volatility is the most powerful market entry strategy

Written by: Dovey Wan

Compiled by: Deep Wave TechFlow

Tokens represent a financialized belief system in which the fluctuations of tokens Sex is the most powerful market entry strategy. Many first-time cryptocurrency founders adopt a bottom-up, milestone-based mentality, similar to tech startup founders, believing that as long as meaningful value is created, prices will eventually improve. However, the growth trajectory of a successful crypto project often follows a different sequence:

1. Price leads emotion.
2. Emotion guides the narrative.
3. Narrative guides cognition.
4. Cognitive Guidance Community.
5. Community-led adoption and Protocol Market Fit (PMF).

Barbell Distribution and the Sunk Cost Fallacy

Cryptocurrencies embody the intersection of financial populism and techno-libertarianism. The best distribution strategy for tokens is "barbell distribution", which is to target both poles of users at the same time - core users and edge users, from IQ 150 to IQ 50. This approach forms the upper funnel of the belief formation process. Many founders try to limit the initial token supply to avoid “selling pressure,” but often fail to achieve upper-funnel growth. It's crucial to successfully engage users at one end first and then widen the bar.

In its early days, Bitcoin served either core users (cypherpunks, miners, and billionaires who wanted to avoid wealth redistribution) or fringe users (ordinary people after the collapse of their local currency system or who wanted to circumvent sanctions or capital controls people). Early DeFi also reflects this model, and is best suited for crypto-native core users (self-custody enthusiasts, large investors who want transparent transactions, huge long-tail asset issuance) or edge users (those without good access to centralized exchanges or financial institutions). infrastructure people, driven by the “price rise” narrative). Most intermediate users remain apathetic or undermotivated due to high psychological and product switching costs.

For core users, the opportunity cost of not adopting cryptocurrency is too high. For edge users, the opportunity cost is low, so they are more likely to try.

Most "miners" in the token economic environment are highly mercenary and are affected by their level of sunk costs. The higher the sunk costs, the closer they are to core users. Pre-ASIC Bitcoin miners rarely kept coins because there were no substantial sunk costs to recover. Post-ASIC miners retain coins to cover their sunk costs and operating expenses. PoS stakers hold coins at the opportunity cost of capital. The less productive a PoS coin is, the harder it is to build a strong core user base. Staking (including TVL staking) and airdrop farming are the worst forms of token distribution. The sunk costs of these behaviors are often proof of meaningless work. It is difficult to evaluate the "cost" and attract core or marginal users.

Active circulation through volatility

# Several rounds of changing hands in the market cycle are the best greenhouse for cultivating a belief system, and also a test for the founder’s adaptability and ability. A touchstone of commitment. In the cryptocurrency space, these cycles are significantly accelerated, five times faster than in traditional finance. This dynamic acts like a natural selection process, with passionate advocates holding early tokens amplifying the message and spreading like an idea virus. This shift changes the environment from player versus player (PvP) to player versus environment (PvE).

The key to this transformation is strong leadership, a positive feedback loop that delivers on promises, and healthy interactions with key members of the upper funnel. This effectively transformed the funnel within the crypto space. Certain areas, such as memes and NFTs, require a higher intensity of focus and mental agility, reaching speeds up to five times faster than the already accelerating crypto cycle, and up to 25 times overall.

For meme coin founders, it’s a statistical game with extremely low hit rates, akin to a wildly spinning roulette wheel. Meme coins have played a role in the history of financial populism: they are not the product of financial nihilism, but financial absurdism and populist movements. Camus said this out loud 100 years ago. Cultural mobility, identity crisis, the twin deaths of traditionalism and modern liberalism, all contribute to a vast void in the modern autistic monkey sense. From consumerism to internet tribalism, trends, narratives and products are emerging to fill this void.

因此，每枚硬幣中的敘事和身份一致性現在都成為了表達意義和與志同道合者建立聯繫的一種新手段-- 就像互聯網誕生之初，通常性格內向、不善交際的養貓人終於找到了一個發布自己心愛貓咪照片的出口。 Meme 幣不同於大公司或創投幣，它們可能會堅持一些宏偉的願景和品牌的合法性，但 Meme 幣卻為所有不關心「什麼是長期意義」的人提供了一塊棲身之地。只有最荒誕、最短暫、卻最強烈的多巴胺衝擊，才能留住這群沒有其他戰爭可打（但又必須在某處釋放他們過動症的力量）的戰士。這是加密貨幣中一個偉大的 PMF，非常適合以墮落為中心的文化。

這個環境以最極端的倖存者偏差和冪律為特徵，使用者和交易者本質上是善變的。這就是為什麼大多數代幣在流動性和波動性方面只有 1-3 個月的生命週期，極少數能夠在一個週期後保持相關性。當沒有流動性時，代幣就會死亡。資訊是熵，注意力是貨幣。流動性是代幣的 HRV。

讓鑽石手致富

對早期忠誠者給予豐厚獎勵，並建立一個動力驅動系統，在這個信念系統漏斗中強化承諾。想像金字塔，底座的寬度決定了它的高度；鑽石手構成了基礎底座，決定了 FDV 的高度。價格永遠是敘述的主導。

未能使鑽石手致富自然會使這個信念漏斗的轉換路徑失效，然後它會變成 PvP 而非 PvE。獎勵還不止於經濟收益，它還能作為一種身分認可，提升自尊。作為一個植根於信仰體系的代幣社區，你可以透過培養持有者之間的共同認同感來提供社會和心理價值。傳統主義和現代自由主義的衰落給今天的鍵盤猿留下了巨大的生存空白。趨勢、敘事和代幣的出現填補了這一空白，為人們提供了一種目標感和聯繫感：就像在網路發展初期，通常內向、不善交際的養貓人終於找到了發布愛貓照片的渠道。

鑽石手不僅為了財富效應而存在，也是為了文化和信念的對齊。富有的鑽石手將進一步提升代幣的整體文化影響力，加強信念系統，使其更加自我實現。

最終，代幣代表了一種金融化的信念系統，其中市場動態、人性和心理偏見不僅是需要克服的障礙，而且是成長和採用的基本組成部分。理解和利用這個信念系統對於在加密生態系統中導航和成功至關重要。我一直在尋找既有紮實技術技能，又對人性有深刻理解的創始人。加密貨幣創業是一個需要充分掌握資本市場遊戲規則、文化發展和技術進步的過程。

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