10X Research is bearish on the market: Ethereum still has a lot of leverage, a large number of altcoins are unlocked, and there is a net outflow of funds

The cryptocurrency market has been falling since the beginning of June. BTC has fallen from a high of US$72,000 on the 7th, and once reached US$64,569 today. Although there has been a slight rebound since then, there is still no obvious rebound trend, and it was trading at US$65,445 at the time of writing.

In addition, altcoins led by ETH also suffered heavy losses in this downward trend, with ETH, SOL, and BNB falling by 14%, 28%, and 20% respectively.

BTC price

10X Research: The crypto market is facing multiple pressures

In this context, the analysis agency 10X Research today ( An analysis report released on the 18th pointed out that the cryptocurrency market is facing multiple downward pressures:

• After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the 19b-4 application on May 23, we On June 3, he pointed out: "The speculative position of ETH in the market has reached its limit and may face the risk of liquidation, which may prevent Bitcoin from reaching new historical highs." Despite the recent decline in ETH, there are still too many ETH futures positions, which may indirectly lead to the liquidation of more altcoins in the future.

• Last week (6/10~6/16) was a critical moment for cryptocurrency and one of the most critical weeks in 2024. It was difficult for the market to digest the huge tokens for a series of projects. Coins unlocked, totaling US$483 million, including Aptos (US$97 million), IMX (US$51 million), STRK (US$75 million), etc. Early investors and venture capital firms appear to be under pressure to cash out, causing an overall decline in the market and dragging down the price of Bitcoin.

• Bitcoin miners have begun selling their BTC inventories, and exchange ETH balances have increased significantly by $2.5 billion, which may bring potential selling pressure. Despite improvements in inflation data, Bitcoin spot ETFs still experienced large outflows (5-day average outflow of $660 million). At the same time, the total net outflow of funds in various fields (stablecoins, futures leverage, ETFs, etc.) reached US$2.4 billion. This is also the third week of net flow decline since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in January 2024.

• With Solana’s trading pair against USDT breaking below key trend lines and support levels, the coin may face further downward pressure.

"Net flow" refers to the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds within a specific period of time. It reflects whether there is generally more money coming in than going out or more money going out than coming in during this period. Net flow can be positive (meaning inflows are greater than outflows) or negative (meaning outflows are greater than inflows)

QCP Capital: Bitcoin miner capitulation limits BTC rise

In addition, according to previous reports, the numbers Asset trading company QCP Capital stated that they believe this is due to the "capitulation" that Bitcoin miners are experiencing after the halving, which directly limits the price increase.

Bitcoin miners mainly rely on two sources of income: mining rewards and transaction fees, which must exceed the mining cost to be profitable. Therefore, miners need to consider the following points to avoid exiting the mining industry. :

• Fees income rises

• Bitcoin price rises

• Mining cost decreases

However, Bitcoin’s fourth halving, completed in April, halved the block reward for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Although the Bitcoin Runes protocol once allowed miners to earn generous handling fees, as the protocol quickly faded, the handling fee income dropped sharply, resulting in an increasing number of unprofitable miners who had to quit and surrender. QCP Capital believes that this situation has limited the rise in Bitcoin prices.

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