Tony Predictions: ‘Stereophonic,’ ‘Merrily We Roll Along’ Will Dominate the 2024 Awards

With important discussions raised recently about whether (and which) new categories should be added to the Tony Awards competition – Hair, Wig & Makeup? Casting? Ensemble? Projections? – allow me an unimportant one: Best Coin Toss, because that’s what so many predictors will rely on for a season crammed with excellent nominees.

Sarah Paulson or Jessica Lange? Coin toss. Appropriate? Purlie Victorious? An Enemy of the People? Coin toss, coin toss, coin toss. Five cast members of Stereophonic? Get plenty of change.

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But Tony predictions are as much a part of the annual Broadway tradition as red carpets and go-for-broke musical numbers. So with that in mind, I’ll get on with the coins, the hair-splitting and more than a few passionate opinions. Here is Deadline’s annual roster of predictions for the 2024 Tony Awards, airing this Sunday evening on CBS.

BEST PLAY

Will Win: Stereophonic

Should Win: Stereophonic

Both Paula Vogel’s Mother Play and Amy Herzog’s Mary Jane were incredibly moving explorations of familial bonds, obligations and sacrifices, while Jocelyn Bioh’s Jaja’s African Hair Braiding was a joyous presentation of Black identity, community, heritage and, no small feat, the single greatest argument for the creation of a hair and wig Tony category. And in any other year, Joshua Harmon’s searing Prayer for the French Republic could be a shoo-in.

But this year belongs to David Adjmi’s Stereophonic, and any other Best Play winner would be one of Sunday’s biggest surprises. As unlikely a Broadway hit to come along in years, Stereophonic is, on its surface, a clever, barely disguised roman a clef about ’70s rock giants Fleetwood Mac and the troubled making of the band’s masterpiece Rumours, but Adjmi is after so much more. A meditation on creative temperament, toxic masculinity (and its costs to both women and men), artistic collaboration versus individual genius and the unexpected costs of fame and success, Stereophonic is a marvel, from its writing, performances, set and costume design to its uncannily authentic-sounding score. It’s Broadway’s rock star of 2024.

BEST MUSICAL

Will Win: Hell’s Kitchen

Should Win: Illinoise

The first coin toss of this list. Strong arguments could be made for the gorgeous Suffs, audience favorite The Outsiders and dark horse possibility Water For Elephants. I think Hell’s Kitchen, the Alicia Keys bio-musical, will edge them out through sheer force of Big Musical power.

But I’d like to see Illinoise take the trophy. The combination of Sufjan Stevens’ music and Justin Peck’s choreography made this dance-theater hybrid an experience both exciting and tender. Perhaps an even more unlikely Broadway resident than Stereophonic, the dialogue-free Illinoise arrived at the very last minute for Tony eligibility, a rousing end to a very busy, very tiring, spring season.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Will Win: Appropriate

Should Win: Appropriate

As deserving of recognition as the eye-opening long-in-coming revival of Purlie Victorious was, and as stirring as An Enemy of the People is, the revival of Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ Appropriate is this year’s stunner. Led by the amazing Sarah Paulson, this tale of a shattered family reuniting to settle an estate (and confront past horrors both familial and historical), Appropriate was one of the powerhouses of the 2023-24 Broadway season.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Will Win: Merrily We Roll Along

Should Win: Merrily We Roll Along

Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club will have its defenders, Gutenberg! has its die-hards and The Who’s Tommy is beloved by the My Generation generation, but Maria Friedman’s revelatory staging of Merrily We Roll Along, long considered an unequivocal Sondheim failure, is as close to a sure thing as this year’s Tonys get. Perhaps the greatest tribute the late genius composer has ever received.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY LEADING ACTOR/PLAY

Will Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious

Should Win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious

This is going to be a close one. Jeremy Strong (An Enemy of the People) is the likely favorite, and William Jackson Harper is by far the strongest element of Lincoln Center Theater’s Uncle Vanya revival.

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