After ETH, which cryptocurrency will be the next most likely to launch an ETF?

In the early morning of May 24, the Ethereum ETF ushered in a milestone moment in the United States, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the issuer’s 19b-4 document. As a result, discussions surrounding the possible launch of ETFs for other tokens have also become popular. What are the challenges in approving ETFs for other tokens? If this is possible, which tokens can be launched earlier? SOL, PEPE, or DOGE?

From the perspective of industry experts, the consensus of tokens and whether they are defined as securities are two hard thresholds. Currently, if there are no major changes in the regulatory framework in the United States, the next ETF may be launched in two or three years. will occur.

Sol’s voice is high, but the possibility is low

On May 23, BKCM CEO Brian Kelly (Brian Kelly) CNBC’s “Fast Money” predicted that Solana (SOL) could become the next cryptocurrency to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. But the bold prediction met with some immediate pushback from industry experts, who pointed to several significant regulatory and market challenges.

First, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has classified Solana as a security, which has been mentioned in lawsuits against major exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken. So this makes Solana's path to approval more complicated. Additionally, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have futures ETFs, Solana does not have this critical market base.

Bloomberg’s ETF analyst James Seyffart said that before any spot ETFs can be launched, Solana needs a futures product listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, or the U.S. Congress A strong regulatory framework for cryptocurrency.

Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the only two cryptocurrencies with approved futures ETFs in the United States. Major ETF issuers have also shown little interest in launching ETFs beyond these two digital assets. Well-known ETF issuer BlackRock said it has no plans to launch ETFs for other altcoins, including Solana.

Although Franklin Templeton, who manages trillions of dollars in assets, recently praised Solana and one of its founders, Anatoly Yakovenko, it triggered a There is speculation about whether the company will consider applying for a spot Solana ETF in the future, but currently few ETF issuers have expressed intentions to apply for a spot Solana ETF.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci agreed with Seifert that without futures markets and clearer rules, there probably won’t be There is a spot Solana ETF. He said Congress needs to create a legal regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies before such products have any chance of approval.

Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran believes that due to the simpler regulatory situation, Litecoin (LTC) or Dogecoin (DOGE) may become the next An ETF-approved cryptocurrency. Both Litecoin and Dogecoin use a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism similar to Bitcoin, which may make their regulatory paths less controversial.

On May 23, Grayscale launched two new investment trust funds, Grayscale Near Trust (NEAR) and Grayscale Stacks Trust (STX). Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, Grayscale’s chief product and research lead, said they are committed to launching new products that allow investors to gain exposure to emerging and growing parts of the crypto ecosystem. Some people believe that the trends of institutions such as Grayscale may also become clues to the next ETF, but the current situation is not clear.

Consensus and whether it is defined as a security are hard thresholds

On May 23, the "Ethereum Spot ETF" jointly organized by PANews and OKX will bring What? 》In Twitter Space, the guests present also discussed this issue. @0xVeryBigOrange, the manager of 0x Dry Goods Store, believes that the first step is to analyze the top 10 or even the top 5 in market capitalization, that is, other than Bitcoin and Ethereum, I think SOL is almost impossible because there are many disputes that are being resolved. It is impossible for BNB to file a lawsuit. I think DOGE may have a higher probability in the future.

"DOGE I have also been paying attention to it recently, but I still think that the probability of other tokens launching ETFs immediately is extremely low, and there is a qualitative leap between launching and not launching. For other words, you can use it as an elimination method, and Don’t even consider it if the market value is small,” Da Chengzi added.

Ethereum ecosystem developer 0xAA @0xAA_Science holds the same view as Big Orange, "After Ethereum, I also think that based on market value, I hope to give more opportunities to memes, because the memes that are launched fairly may be the least likely. Securities, but I don’t think the United States will accept the public investing in this meme in the short term, so take your time.” Mindao @mindaoyang, founder of dForce, said that several indicators were mentioned earlier, one is C. Judging from this point of view, the code concentration is indeed in the top 20. I think it also has something to do with stickiness. For example, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been in the market for more than 10 years. C code is already very scattered, and Solana is only four or five years old. In addition, the concentration of its foundation was specifically mentioned earlier, including the 10% held by FTX. The total number of relevant people may not necessarily be less than 20%, so Solana basically does not possible.

There is also a leading indicator for the adoption of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which must be traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in the United States. Because the ETF itself has to refer to the price, in fact, in addition to Ethereum and BTC calculations, There will be no other targets traded on it. I think the window period may be at least two or three years, and there will not be a third one. If there is a third one, I think Dogecoin may meet this requirement, but the market value of Dogecoin is too high. It's too low. I think it's pretty useless to spend more than 20 billion US dollars to build an ETF.

Now the two ETFs of Bitcoin and Ethereum have a very strong advantageous position, because the first two of them have completely different narratives, and the narrative of Ethereum is highly overlapping with Solana. So there is Ethereum, why Solana, why do we need these others. There may not be much such narrative differentiation, so at least I think that in the next two to three years, only BTC and ETH may be investable ETFs, and the others are indeed invisible.

Data analyst Phyrex @Phyrex_Ni believes that this is very possible on an annual basis. Secondly, I will focus on the issue of DOGE. We still need to look at the conditions for the SEC to approve spot ETFs. The first one is that it must be a non-security. Let’s first say that DOGE is a non-security. This may be satisfied.

The second point is that there must be sufficient consensus. The so-called consensus refers to the market capitalization of funds on the one hand. The other point is that when we see rejection of ETFs, there is a lot of content here, including one Market manipulation. In fact, DOGE has very obvious market manipulation. You can clearly see that whenever Elon Musk posts anything related to DOGE, he will definitely have a market reaction. There are other things in DOGE. The increase may be relatively large, so from this aspect, it is highly market concentrated and highly market manipulated.

So from this aspect, no matter who is the chairman of the SEC, no matter whether FIT21 has failed, then for DOGE itself, the possibility of it passing the spot ETF is very low. This is It is very low, which is also one of the reasons for its market value.

As for the second one, we can look at the market value. Whether you are DOGE or someone else, the gap is actually very big. Solana Everyone knows Solana is impossible. Even if Solana has reached a consensus, its biggest problem is the SEC issue. The SEC actually wants to save face, especially now that the SEC is involved in the lawsuit against Coinbase, we have already mentioned Solana as a key securities target. , so the lawsuit with Solana will definitely be fought, it’s just a matter of when.

Even if Gary Gensler (SEC Chairman) is replaced this time, there will be a lawsuit regarding the relationship between Solana and Coinbase, and BNB is unlikely. Ripple itself is possible, XRP is actually possible, but no one from Ripple actually won any SEC lawsuit. Ripple did not win at all. Ripple just changed from losing 100 points to losing 80 points.

We see that in the overall cryptocurrency, if it is a security, it may not be a consensus enough. If it is a consensus, it may not be a security. Well, first of all, according to the SEC, it is officially clear that it is no longer a security. That is, we have seen that except for BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC, DOGEE, and STX, no one has clearly stated that this is Not a security.

Also, as Teacher Mindao said, you must go to CME (Chicago Merchant Exchange) first, but you haven’t even seen this level, so it may be more difficult.

So next, even if there are new ETFs in the future, it is only possible to see if the definition of the entire cryptocurrency industry can be changed after FIT21 is passed. If it is really possible If this article is changed, then there may be a new one, and then we can only say who the new one will be. If the conclusion of this article has not been changed, then it is very likely that the target will be year-on-year, and it is not even ruled out that all existing tokens are not enough to meet the conditions.

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