Mt. Gox transferred nearly 10 billion US dollars of BTC, is the market crash really coming?

Author: flowie, ChainCatcher

Editor: Marco, ChainCatcher

On May 28, Mt.Gox’s continuous large-scale BTC transfers caused a certain amount of market panic.

According to Whale Alert monitoring, as of 14:11:04 Beijing time, Mt. Gox has transferred a total of 141,658 BTC (approximately US$9.6 billion). This is the first time since 2018 that the Mt.Gox wallet address has experienced large asset changes.

CryptoQuant researcher Axler Adler Jr said in According to Mt.Gox’s creditor compensation plan, Mt.Gox needs to distribute the 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH it holds to creditors before October 31, 2024.

As Mt.Gox pays compensation. As the deadline approaches, the large BTC transfer from its wallet address may be seen as a prelude to a sell-off. BTC fell below $68,000 in a short period of time.

Currently, according to Mt. Gox’s official announcement, Mt. Gox confirmed that the transfer of Bitcoin was for the purpose of selling. Preparing for October 31st creditor payment deadline

10 years after its collapse, Mt. Gox’s compensation plan is still ongoing After more than 800,000 BTC were stolen, the Japanese crypto exchange Mt. Gox declared bankruptcy and entered bankruptcy protection in 2014.

After 10 years of bankruptcy, Mt. Gox’s compensation plan is still in progress. . In September 2023, Mt. Gox extended the deadline for basic repayment, early one-time repayment and mid-term repayment originally scheduled for October 31, 2023 to October 31, 2024. ##According to Mt.Gox’s balance sheet in 2019, Mt.Gox needs to repay creditors 142,000 BTC, 143,000 BCH and 69 billion yen (USD 510 million).

According to 2023. In the repayment announcement of Mt.Gox in 2017, Mt.Gox provided two repayment plans: basic repayment and proportional repayment to creditors.

In the basic repayment, the first 200,000 yen claimed by each creditor will be paid in Japanese yen. Payment. In proportional repayment, creditors can choose two methods, namely "early lump sum payment" or "mid-term payment and terminal payment". For portions exceeding 200,000 yen, creditors can choose a mixture of BTC, BCH and Japanese yen, or pay the entire amount in fiat currency with "mid-term repayments" that are larger than the one-time repayment amount. "Terminal repayment", you need to wait longer. A higher proportion of repayment will also need to wait for the outcome of the lawsuit, which is expected to be as long as 5-9 years.

In 2023, as the Mt.Gox compensation window opens , Mt. Gox has only entered the formal repayment stage. In mid-November 2023, Mt. Gox bankruptcy liquidator Nobuaki Kobayashi informed users by email that they were working hard to start cash repayments in 2023. A creditor document from Nobuaki Kobayashi shows that it redeemed 7 billion yen (worth approximately US$46.9 million) from the bankruptcy trust on November 17 for subsequent compensation operations.

Not long after, in December 2023, many creditors, including Japan’s leading exchange bitFlyer founder Yuzo Kana, stated on social media that they had received part of the compensation, and this part of the compensation was in the form of Japanese yen. Involves BTC and other token compensation.

In January 2024, a creditor in Poland and Japan also said it had received repayment, saying 80% of its claim was returned in U.S. dollars via bank transfer.

There was no change in Mt. Gox’s on-chain wallet during this period.

Mt.Gox wallet has changed for the first time in 5 years. Is the market crash really coming?

Mt.Gox’s huge BTC compensation plan is regarded as the Sword of Damocles in the crypto market.

Mt. Gox’s twists and turns in compensation have caused a certain degree of market panic more than once. In December 2023, many Mt. Gox creditors revealed that they had received compensation. Perhaps affected by this news, the price of BTC also fell briefly.

But what is different from past compensation dynamics is that this time Mt.Gox involved the transfer of large amounts of BTC on the chain. Arkham Intelligence shows that Mt. Gox has transferred assets in a "cold wallet" for the first time since 2018. As of press time, more than 140,000 BTC have been transferred. The last time Mt.Gox related wallet chain dynamics occurred on July 24, 2023, but this transaction only transferred a very small amount of BTC (about 1 US dollar), which was speculated to be for Check address control permissions.

In addition, at the beginning of this year, some creditors also received a compensation-related email sent by Mt.Gox. The email confirmed the BTC/BCH payment address to users and stated that Bitcoin would be unlocked in the next two months. to pay creditors.

Mt.Gox payout deadline set for October 31, 2024. In April 2024, more than a month before this change in assets on the chain, Mt. Gox creditors also saw an update in their BTC and BCH claim amounts in the exchange’s claim declaration system. This update It is also speculated that Mt. Gox will pay compensation to creditors in advance.

Currently, according to Mt. Gox’s official announcement, Mt. Gox confirmed that the transfer of Bitcoin is in preparation for the October 31 creditor repayment deadline.

In April 2024, the cryptocurrency research institution K33 Research issued a report reminding crypto users that Mt. Gox is preparing to distribute approximately 142,000 Bitcoins (BTC) and 143,000 Bitcoin Cash (BTC) to creditors. BCH), and this huge cryptocurrency release “may become a relevant negative price influencer in the coming weeks.”

The identities of the claimants cannot be made public due to Japan's bankruptcy proceedings, but many claimants have disclosed some information to the media.

In November 2023, the encryption media Protos mentioned in the article "Who owns MtGox claims to billions of dollars in bitcoin?" MtGox claims are highly concentrated among the largest holders. Only 226 claimants own more than 50% of MtGox's claims. The 226 claimants could receive 84,650 Bitcoins.

And a list of some of Mt. Gox’s largest known creditors is as follows:

• Mt.Gox Investment Fund (MGIF): As of March 8, 2023, MGIF is Mt. Gox's largest creditor.
• Fortress Investment Group: Not to be confused with Fortress Trust, the group that has offered cash buyouts to Mt. Gox claimants.
• Kraken: Kraken's Jesse Powell, a former consultant at Mt. Gox, created a portal for thousands of victims to submit claims. Many of the smaller Mt. Gox claims were consolidated through Kraken.
• Tibanne: Claims to own up to 88% of Mt. Gox.
• CoinLab: Claims Mt. Gox owes it at least $170 million and possibly as much as $16 billion. In 2019, CoinLab escalated one of its lawsuits to $16 billion, challenging a revenue-sharing agreement with Mt. Gox. Its $16 billion claim far exceeds the combined claims of all other creditors and exceeds all assets held by the Mt. Gox bankruptcy trustee. The settlement figure for the lawsuit is uncertain.
• Jed McCaleb: May own 12% of Mt. Gox.
• Bitcoinica: Demanding $29 million.
• Roger Ver: Claims 577 Bitcoins personally lost.

Protos said that the two major creditors, Bitcoinica and MGIF, jointly hold about 20% of the claims. In February 2023, they agreed to take about 70% of payments in Bitcoin to ease concerns about sudden sale orders. MGIF also later reiterated that it would not be selling Bitcoin immediately.

The current price of Bitcoin has reached US$68,000, which has increased dozens of times compared to less than US$1,000 in 2014. As a new phase of compensation begins, will Mt. Gox sell BTC to obtain repayment funds, or will creditors who have received BTC repayment immediately sell their chips?

Galaxy research director Alex Thorn said on the X platform that he expects the majority of BTC to be held. However, K33 Research reminds crypto users that although creditors are unlikely to collectively sell repaid Bitcoins, and repayment does not necessarily equate to selling pressure, creditors may choose to continue to hold, but this may be important to unsettle the market in the short term. factor.

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