Solana Meme The other side of the collective mania: Most will have a crazy correction of 70%, and liquidity bottlenecks have become the norm
- WBOYOriginal
- 2024-06-03 11:43:23751browse
Source: smolresearcharc
#Compiled by Deep Wave TechFlowA few days ago, @cryptowhail proposed to me at 5am An existential question: “Are we in an active period of the SOL market now?” This question got me thinking about how Meme has performed on the SOL chain since the fourth quarter of last year. We looked at the data. This data comes from the SOL Meme posted by @CryptoKoryo via the dune dashboard over the past few months. It was a manual process of picking memes and finding the data, but I think we did a pretty good job.
We plotted current market cap (blue) versus all-time highs (orange + blue) over the past few months:
November 2023: PEEP, WIF
December 2023: VONSPEED to POPCAT
February 2024: SNP to CHAT
March 2024: ACAT to BOME
April 2024: POOWEL to MANEKI
May 2024: BUNI to CRODIE
Some observations Result:
It is difficult to break through the market value of 300 million, let alone break through 1 billion US dollars. Only WIF, MYRO, POPCAT, SC, BODEN, SLERF, BODEN, MEW, and BOME successfully broke through.
Currently only WIF, POPCAT, and MEW (barely) have a market value of more than $300 million. This shows how difficult it is to maintain a high market cap in this meme-saturated environment.
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Quite a few memes have reached an ATH of over $100 million, but
there are very few that can sustain it. In addition to the above mentioned, we also have MYRO, SC (barely maintained), BODEN, SLERF, and MICHI. -
Most memes have huge retracements (
see orange to blue ratio). Unfortunately, the data for WIF and BOME is skewed, but the average retracement rate from top (ATH) across all memes is 72%. This suggests that you have to chase the winners very hard, or those coins with higher liquidity (CEX liquidity like WIF, or newer coins that don't retrace much). Notable callbacks include:
PEEP: Down 95% ($24M) since ATH - November 2023
VONSPEED: Since ATH down 92% ($8.2M) - December 2023
SILLY: ATH down 91% ($161.4M) - December 2023
KPOP: Down 91% from ATH ($24.3M) - January 2024
WYNN: Down 96% from ATH ($84.2M) - January 2024
AMC: Down 91% from ATH ($10.6M) - February 2024
ACAT: Down 91% from ATH ($8.3M) - February 2024
AABL: Down 93% from ATH ($54.7M) - March 2024
PENG: Down 93% from ATH ( $213.8 million) - March 2024
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MIMANY: Down 92% from ATH ($44.2 million) - April 2024
HAROLD: Down 93% ($58.9M) since ATH - April 2024
HOBBES: Since ATH Down 97% ($132.6M) - April 2024
DEVIN: ATH Down 98% ($14.9M) - May 2024
Interestingly, I thought the data would show us looking like the picture below (cycle down), but there seemed to be some outliers (BOME Liquidity Plenty, insiders know it will be listed on Binance). It is worth noting that apart from BOME and WIF, no other meme coins are listed on Binance.
What does the data tell us?
It is very difficult tobreak through certain market capitalization levels: 30 million/100 million/300 million US dollars, let alone maintain after a sharp decline It looks like this is still a trader's market.
The retracement from ATH was brutal. An average drawdown rate of 72% and an average liquidity of 3% (compared to current market cap) means that if you join at the top, it will be difficult to withdraw the money you originally invested.
@cryptowhail's comment about us entering the SOL Meme active phase may not be as accurate as one might think. For that to happen, we need to see more winners over the likes of POPCAT or MYRO in April/May.
But for now, SOL is where your bets are. On-chain transaction volume rises. Pump.fun plus the multiple memes being launched on SOL every day means everyone is glued to their bots and wallet trackers trying to catch the next winner (which by the way looks like there are fewer winners unless you Want to earn 2-3 times). But we are in the trenches working hard for that miraculous 100.
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