If a mad cow comes, how can we be safe?

Source: distilledcrypto has arrived. But when should I sell my crypto? You might rely on your gut to tell when the bull market peaks, but is there a better way? Please remember: "Failing to prepare means preparing to fail."

The Pitfalls of Price Forecasting

It is a common mistake to rely solely on price targets to manage your investments. Such goals are often subjective and easily driven by emotions or influenced by social media. It is extremely difficult to accurately predict prices and predict the timing of price changes.

#As a portfolio grows, so does an investor's fear and greed. Each dip and rise escalates the struggle for rational thought. Price targets keep changing, cognitive biases keep growing, and investment discipline keeps weakening. It's you versus yourself, and as the stakes rise, so does the difficulty.

The power of investment ideas

In addition to price prediction, are there any reliable strategies? We have many options: sentiment, technical indicators or on-chain analysis. However, strategies centered around investment ideas often prove to be the most reliable.

Form an investment philosophy

An investment philosophy is a rational argument for a project’s potential within a specified time frame. The factors that shape this argument are diverse and not always related to price. Good ideas should be testable, allowing for precise and flexible management.

Why concept investment is more reliable

The reason why concept investment is reliable is for the following reasons:

As you continue to grow Portfolio Expansion

Eliminate the Impact of Sentiment and Emotion

• Provide Clear Verification Methods
• Eliminate Short-Term Noise
• Example 1
Suppose you are very optimistic about the prospects of a certain L1. Instead of looking at its past ATH (all-time high price), you can look at:

TVL, trading volume, or the number of active wallets. Going a step further, you can look at related metrics like its market share or mind share.

Next, set up validation based on the key performance indicators (KPIs) of your choice. This helps to check if L1 is following the path you predicted or deviating. For example, you could use 30 days of growth in a KPI as a benchmark.

Example 2

Imagine a new project for an artificial intelligence agent. Instead of price, you can focus on KPIs like number of agent transactions. Based on your beliefs, you set a benchmark, such as reaching 1 million on-chain transactions.

Are you interested in lesser-known and more volatile tokens?

Many companies have only a minimum viable product (MVP) or no active product at all. In this case, focus on roadmap nodes or milestones.

Also, if your investment philosophy focuses on event execution rather than metric growth. As they say, "Buy rumors, sell news." Sometimes it's wiser to quit immediately after confirming the date than to wait for the event to happen. Later, you can set new metrics and develop new ideas.

Other strategies

If you feel that complex concept strategies are not suitable for you? You can consider the following alternatives:

Time-Based Strategy

Fear and Greed Strategy

• Relative Performance
• Time-based strategies

Time-based strategies provide a simpler and more reliable approach. You can sell a small portion of your portfolio every week or every month. Adjust the timing and amount of sales based on macro factors, liquidity, and your goals.

Fear and Greed Strategy

Fluctuations in market sentiment are like the tides of the ocean, exacerbating greed. The fear and greed strategy is to ride the rising tide and secure gains before the tide recedes. You could consider a weighted DCA-out strategy based on the fear and greed index.

Relative Performance

Imagine the market is a race and each token is like a speeding car. Now, the key point is to determine which car accelerates faster relative to the other cars. One way to realize a profit is to sell when it reaches a certain float market cap ranking.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Cryptocurrencies are highly speculative and emotions often take over. A risk system that operates independently of price can provide peace of mind. Therefore, please prioritize forming your own investment philosophy rather than guessing. This is an essential quality for successful investors.

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